A sobering analysis from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says that while school per-pupil funding for 2025/26 is to grow by 2.8% in cash terms, this is set to be swallowed by a rise in costs of 3.6%.
Pupil numbers are due to fall by 2% between now and 2027 offering potential for savings, however “rapid rises” in the cost of SEND provision “seem likely to wipe out any opportunities for savings, even if core per-pupil funding is kept constant in real terms”.
The report states: “Looking to the 2025 spending review … if the government chose to freeze school spending per-pupil in real-terms, it could make savings of £1.2bn by 2027. However, the government also projects that high needs spending will grow by £2.3bn between now and 2027/28. This severely reduces the chances of making savings in the schools budget.”
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