An analysis published this week by the Education Policy Institute (Cruikshanks, 2024) shows that the total number of pupils in state-funded primary and secondary schools are projected to fall from a peak of 7.57 million in 2022/23 to 7.14 million in 2028/29 – a fall of 436,000.
It estimates that this will result in school funding in England falling from £42.7bn in 2024/25 to £41.6bn in 2029/30.
Primary schools are set to be the hardest hit, with total funding projected to fall by 5.6% between 2023/24 and 2029/30.
Over the same time period, funding for secondary schools will actually increase until 2026/27, before it also then begins to fall as the lower primary pupil numbers filter through.
The number of primary pupils has already begun to fall from its 4.73 million peak in 2018/19, with the projections showing an average yearly decrease of 1.5% until numbers reach 4.06 million in 2028/29.
The number of secondary pupils is expected to peak at 3.18 million in 2023/24, before falling at an increasingly faster rate over the following five years, dropping to 3.08 million in 2028/29.
However, the impact of falling rolls will be felt very differently across the country.
Regionally, the analysis finds that all regions will experience a decrease in primary school funding between 2023/24 and 2029/30, with the largest drops coming in the North East (9%), Yorkshire and The Humber (8.86%), London (8.26%) and the South West (6.24%).
The East of England is projected to have the smallest decrease (1.2%).
At secondary level, all regions are actually projected to experience an increase in funding between 2023/24 and 2029/30 with the exceptions of Yorkshire and The Humber (which will lose 0.14%), the North East (1.16%), and London (2.47%).
The report breaks down the projections to local authority level and finds that while some areas will see huge decreases in funding for both primary and secondary others will see notable increases.
The biggest winner will be Central Bedfordshire, which is projected to see increased funding of 13% at primary level and almost 18% at secondary. The biggest loser will be Lambeth in London, which faces a decrease of more than 21% at primary level and almost 16% at secondary.
The research uses the EPI’s new school funding model to replicate the National Funding Formula and estimate the potential impact of funding policy decisions in Westminster on the schools block and per-pupil funding levels.
Given that school funding levels are not known for all of the period under scrutiny, the analysis has assumed that per-pupil funding will increase by 0.5% in real-terms until 2030.
However, even with this taken into account it predicts that after peaking in 2024/25, school funding will begin to spiral, decreasing by an average 0.5% a year until 2029/30.
Primary numbers: Total number of pupils in mainstream primary schools projected between 2022/23 and 2028/29 (source: Cruikshanks, 2024)
Secondary numbers: Total number of pupils in mainstream secondary schools projected between 2022/23 and 2028/29 (source: Cruikshanks, 2024)
Funding lottery: Project percentage changes in regional school funding levels for primary and secondary schools between 2023/24 and 2029/30 (source: Cruikshanks, 2024)
Winners and losers: Tables showing the projected changes in pupil numbers and subsequent funding across the five local authority areas projected to lose and gain the most for primary and secondary education respectively (source: Cruikshanks, 2024)
The problems are being caused by the “baby boom” of the early 2000s which led to increased demand for school places – more than 1.1 million school places have since been created between 2010 and 2022.
But now birth rates are in decline and while school funding is tied closely to pupil numbers, schools’ costs are not so closely linked.
The report warns that such falls in funding may lead to “schools being faced with difficult decisions to remain sustainable, such as mergers with other schools or school closure”.
The Association of School and College Leaders has previously called on the government to reinvest the money that is to be saved and the analysis sets out just how much could be gained.
It concludes that if this money was “reinvested” and funding was maintained at peak levels of 2024/25, then this would mean an additional £167 a year for primary and £143 for secondary pupils by 2030. However, the report suggests this money could also be invested in other ways, such as via the Pupil Premium or free school meals.
The report concludes: “The scale of the change in the pupil population over the next five years alone presents major policy challenges to future governments. Many schools and local authorities are likely to see their budgets shrink considerably, even if per-pupil funding is maintained.
“In the coming years, policy-makers must carefully consider the impacts of changes to the national funding formula on schools that are most affected by falling pupil numbers. Increases to per-pupil factors may disproportionately benefit areas projected to see a rise in pupil numbers, while further funding through the lump sum or school-led factors risks weakening the link between deprivation and funding through the national funding formula.
“Some schools, particularly those in London and other urban areas, are likely to see both decreases in pupils and an increase in the rate of deprivation. Significant falls in funding in these areas risks further widening of the disadvantage gap as school budgets struggle to meet the additional needs of disadvantaged pupils.”
Robbie Cruikshanks, an EPI researcher and author of the analysis, said: “Managing this fall in pupil numbers means that, in many areas of the country, the number of pupils that are admitted to schools will inevitably fall. This could then lead to mergers to ensure that schools remain financially viable or even school closures. One of the key challenges facing the system is that pupil place planning remains the responsibility of local authorities, but ultimately they have no statutory levers to direct academies to adjust admissions numbers.
“Policy-makers must carefully consider the impacts of changes to the national funding formula on schools that are most affected by falling pupil numbers and how best to redistribute any savings created by these falls.”
Commenting on the finding, Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, said the government had “an opportunity” to reinvest the money and help schools keep current staffing levels, “paving the way for smaller class sizes, and targeted support for pupils”.
He also urged a long-term approach in areas facing significant falls in pupil numbers: “It would be a waste to allow smaller schools to close, only for there to be a need for more places in those areas further down the line.”
Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, added: “The next government must address this grave situation by using the reduction in pupil numbers as an opportunity to improve per-pupil funding – particularly for disadvantaged pupils – rather than as a saving for the Treasury.
“This would help to address the financial pressures caused by the past 14 years of underfunding and put education on a more sustainable footing without costing any additional money.”
- Cruikshanks: School funding model: Effect of falling school rolls, EPI, April 2024: https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/school-funding-model-effect-of-falling-rolls/