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Leadership retention plea: 'Better headteachers tend to be experienced headteachers'

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Evidence showing the impact effective headteachers have on pupil outcomes and staff turnover has highlighted the importance of retaining experienced school leaders and shoring up leadership supply
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A study investigating the influence of headteachers on their schools has found that replacing “ineffective” secondary headteachers with effective ones can achieve the equivalent of an additional three months of learning for pupils and reduce staff turnover (Zuccollo et al, 2023).

However, the study warns that experience in the job is a key factor in becoming an effective leader, throwing into sharp focus on-going concerns about leadership retention and supply.

A key recommendation in the study is that school governors and Ofsted inspectors must acknowledge “that it may take years to realise the full improvement in results from switching headteachers and support new headteachers accordingly”.

It adds: “They should also recognise that the cost of losing experienced leaders is high and focus on supporting them to remain in the profession.”

The study, published by the Education Policy Institute (EPI), uses national data on pupils and heads in England from 2004 to 2019, following 22,300 primary and 5,400 secondary headteachers.

By tracking the headteachers as they moved between schools, researchers separated the effect of the headteacher from other factors such as school context and pupil circumstances. It tracked headteachers’ impact on pupil progress, teacher turnover, and teacher absences.

Effectiveness is judged by the headteacher’s impact on pupil attainment. The study says that an “effective headteacher” is at the 84th percentile, an “average head” is at the median, and a “less effective head” is at the 16th percentile.

It concludes that replacing a less effective headteacher with one judged under this measure to be effective will yield improvements including:

  • An increase to pupil attainment by an average of two GCSE grades at secondary level and an additional three months of learning for pupils at primary level.
  • A reduction in teacher turnover in both primary and secondary schools as measured both annually and cumulatively over a four-year period.
  • A “marked” reduction in staff absenteeism in secondary schools of at least 7 days each year on average (no consistent effective was found in primary schools).
  • Better Ofsted grades, on average, for secondary schools.

 

Table 1: Effect of switching from less effective to average headteacher on pupils' results (source Zuccollo et al, 2023)

 

When it comes to the role of experience, the study says that “better headteachers tend to be experienced headteachers”.

The study states: “For both primary and secondary schools, having five more years of experience equates to an extra two months of progress for primary and secondary school students. This equates to an increase of 1.25 GCSE grades for secondary school students.”

The effects on pupil attainment outlined above were also found by researchers to be “stronger for headteachers that remain in the school for several years”.

However, the findings come amid a challenging environment for school leadership retention and supply, exacerbated by the pandemic.

The National Association of Head Teachers has conducted regular research on both leadership retention and aspiration.

In 2019, it found that only 49% of middle leaders aspired to headship, with respondents citing concerns including work/life balance (79%) and accountability pressures (69%).

In 2021, its report Fixing the leadership crisis, found that of 2,047 school leaders, 53% of those who were not currently a headteacher did not want to become one. This figure is up from 46% in 2020. Furthermore, the more experienced a teaching professional becomes, the less likely they are to want to take the final step to headship.

In 2022, the NAHT’s Gone for good report found that 31% of primary and secondary senior leaders leave their post within five years, with 53% of senior leaders who quit being lost to the state-funded sector altogether.

When it comes to primary headteachers, 25% left their post within five years and 64% of these left state-funded schools completely. At secondary level, 37% left their post within five years and 67% of these left the state sector (NAHT, 2022).

Elsewhere, the 2022 Teacher Wellbeing Index, an annual school workforce wellbeing check published by charity Education Support, found that among senior leaders 87% said they were stressed and 84% had mental health symptoms due to their work.

Indeed, 58% have actively sought to change roles or leave their current position, with the three biggest factors cited as workload, seeking a better work/life balance and not feeling valued.

Speaking this week, James Bowen, the NAHT’s assistant general secretary, said: "Put simply, school leaders make a difference, and we should be supporting and investing in them. The finding that effectiveness increases with experience shows the importance of keeping headteachers in the profession for as long as possible.

"Sadly, the growing crisis in retention of school leaders means that this is not currently happening with too many leaving the profession prematurely."

The EPI study concludes that “enhancing the quality of school leadership may be a cost-effective way of improving school performance and more work should be done on how to achieve it”.

It adds that the government as part of its efforts to close the attainment gap should encourage more high-quality headteachers to work in the most-disadvantaged schools and in areas outside London.

Co-author James Zuccollo, the EPI’s director for school workforce, said: “The impact of effective headteachers on pupils’ attainment, as well as teacher retention and absenteeism, makes a compelling case for the government to strengthen and invest in headteacher quality.

“Policy-makers should also consider incentives to ensure that the best headteachers are working in the most challenging and disadvantaged schools across the country if they are serious about closing the disadvantage gap.”