Th government’s intention to push for potential below-inflation teacher pay rise in September 2025 has put into even starker context recent teacher training figures showing “vast under-recruitment” for a third straight year.
During the election campaign, the Labour Party pledged to recruit 6,500 new teachers “in key subjects”.
However, little detail has been forthcoming about how it defines this 6,500 target and how it intends to meet it. Education secretary Bridget Phillipson has said that she is aiming to reach this goal by the end of this Parliament.
The challenge is stark. The annual initial teacher training (ITT) census has rarely made for happy reading in recent years and the latest figures, published last month (DfE, 2024), are no different.
For 2024/25, just 88% of the primary recruitment target and 62% of the secondary recruitment target was met. In total, there were 23,011 postgraduate trainees recruited – 14,753 secondary and 8,258 primary. A further 4,735 undergraduate trainees have been recruited.
Even at primary level, where recruitment is historically healthier than at secondary level, there are cracks showing with the 88% figure being a drop from 94% in 2023/24. At secondary level, there has been a slight improvement, but even so only 5 out of 17 subjects hit their postgraduate ITT recruitment targets.
The figures sparked calls for a “comprehensive and funded strategy” – which is all the more important in light of the lack of clarity around the plan to meet the 6,500 pledge.
An analysis in December warned ministers that significant increases to teacher pay – of around 10% a year – would be needed if they wanted to meet the 6,500 target using pay alone (Worth & Tang, 2024).
Given that such rises are unrealistic, the study – published by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) – modelled the impact of a range of additional strategies, including pay rises alongside expanded retention payments and increased training bursaries.
Speaking last month, co-author of the research, Jack Worth, the NFER’s school workforce lead, said he was “waiting with interest” to see more details of how the government proposes to meet its pledge.
Five days after the ITT figures were published, the DfE issued its evidence to the School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB), which will make recommendations for the teachers’ pay rise in September.
There was perhaps surprise as the education secretary, after quickly agreeing this summer to a fully-funded 5.5% pay rise for this year, revealed that she will be pushing for a non-funded 2.8% pay award next year.
The DfE considers 2.8% to be “appropriate” given the financial problems faced by the Treasury.
The National Education Union was quick to point out that this would “likely be below inflation and behind wage increases in the wider economy”.
Inflation, according to the Office for National Statistics is currently running at 2.6%, with a wider measure including housing and household services costs, including rent, rising by 3.5% over the past year (ONS, 2024).
General secretary Daniel Kebede said: “This will only deepen the crisis in education. We need an above-inflation increase as part of a series of urgent steps to achieve the major pay correction needed to restore the pay lost and tackle teacher shortages.
“NEU members fought to win the pay increases of 2023 and 2024. We are putting the government on notice. Our members care deeply about education and feel the depth of the crisis. This won’t do.”
Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, added: “This is an extremely disappointing submission from the secretary of state to the pay review body. The pay award that she proposes will not be sufficient to reverse years of pay erosion, make teaching salaries suitably competitive, and address severe teacher shortages across the country. The inadequacy of the proposed pay award is compounded by the government’s intention that schools should foot the bill out of their existing allocations."
There was also surprise perhaps at the lack of specific detail in the DfE’s STRB submission about its plans to meet its 6,500 target, especially given the low pay rise it proposes.
The document states: “The department’s measures will include getting more teachers into shortage subjects, supporting areas that face particular recruitment challenges, and tackling retention issues.”
It lists a number of ambitions including “addressing broader factors such as workload, wellbeing, and career development opportunities”, as well as citing changes to the Early Career Framework, the newly launched Teacher Degree Apprenticeship, and the refreshed Every Lesson Shapes a Life teacher recruitment campaign.
Even the softest critics might argue that more will be needed. The DfE does cite renewed funding for bursaries (this was announced in October) – although while money is increasing, bursary levels are not increasing bursaries to the level that the NFER study cited above indicates would be required to meet the 6,500 target.
Back at the NFER, in response to what he pointed out was “vast under-recruitment for a third straight year” in the ITT census, Mr Worth reminded ministers: “Without a comprehensive and funded strategy, the government is highly unlikely to meet its pledge to recruit 6,500 new teachers. The fact that primary teacher recruitment is 12% below target as well, highlights the breadth of the overall supply crisis."
And in response to the 2.8% proposal five days later, he added: “This proposed increase would be unlikely to lead to a significant improvement in teacher recruitment and retention, while also requiring schools to make further budget efficiencies to afford it.”
He added: “It seems at odds with the government’s stated ambition to recruit 6,500 new teachers, unless other policy measures are forthcoming which improve the attractiveness of teaching."
The STRB is due to make its recommendations for the September pay rise at some point during the summer term – a summer term that could, as things stand, see the return of strike ballots and discontent over teacher pay.
- DfE: Academic year 2024/25: Initial Teacher Training Census, December 2024: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/initial-teacher-training-census
- DfE: Policy paper: Evidence to the STRB: 2025 pay award for teachers and leaders, December 2024: www.gov.uk/government/publications/evidence-to-the-strb-2025-pay-award-for-teachers-and-leaders
- ONS: Consumer price inflation, UK: November 2024, 2024: www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/november2024
- Worth & Tang: How to recruit 6,500 teachers? Modelling the potential routes to delivering Labour’s teacher supply pledge, NFER, 2024: www.nfer.ac.uk/publications/how-to-recruit-6-500-teachers-modelling-the-potential-routes-to-delivering-labour-s-teacher-supply-pledge