Education did not feature in the Spring Statement on Wednesday (March 26) and no extra funding for schools was announced – much to the anger of education trade unions.
However, after the chancellor’s appearance in the House of Commons, the Office for Budget Responsibility increased its forecast of average earnings growth for 2025/26 from 3% to 3.7%.
This development led Jack Worth, the National Foundation for Educational Research's school workforce lead, to call on the School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB) to consider recommending a pay increase of at least 3.7% this September.
He said: "Teacher recruitment and retention remains in a critical state and without urgent action, achievement of the government’s pledge to recruit 6,500 teachers will be in peril.
“In light of (the OBR’s increased average earnings forecast), it seems unimaginable that the DfE’s teacher pay proposal of 2.8% for the next academic year could remain unchanged.
“The STRB should consider recommending an increase of least 3.7% in order to continue improving the competitiveness of teacher pay, supporting recruitment and retention efforts."
The DfE sparked anger last term when it proposed a 2.8% pay increase in its evidence to the STRB.
The move led the National Education Union to launch a preliminary ballot of members asking if they are prepared to strike over pay and funding. This ballot is due to close on April 11 and general secretary Daniel Kebede has already said, writing in his regular column for SecEd, that he is in no doubt that the result will be "a very clear condemnation”.
The STRB is expected to make its teachers’ pay recommendations at some point during the summer term.
It comes after the NFER warned last month that because of how long teacher recruitment policy takes to filter through to the frontline, the June 2025 Spending Review is effectively the last chance for the government to meet its election pledge to recruit 6,500 new teachers this Parliament.
The government delivered Phase 1 of the chancellor’s multi-year Spending Review last term, covering April 2025 to March 2026. Phase 2 of the Spending Review will be delivered in June and will cover at least two years from April 2026 onwards.
The Spring Statement this week set out plans for 1.2% real-terms growth in departmental spending after 2026 as well as £13bn more for in capital infrastructure. However, it also included a target to reduce administrative costs of government departments by 15% by 2030.
The fact that the Spring Statement snubbed education was not lost on education unions.
Mr Kebede said: “Austerity is ended in deeds not words. The Spring Statement will cause deep anger among education staff because it does not address the key issue preventing schools and colleges from supporting children and young people – a lack of funding.
“Education staff expect government to deliver enough funding for safe school buildings, experienced teachers, appropriate class sizes and pastoral and SEND services.
“Cuts to funding and huge real-terms pay cuts of a fifth since 2010 have made teaching less attractive and the serious recruitment and retention issues are now plain for all to see.”
Earlier this week, the Association of School and College Leaders had called for the government to commit to a number of investments in education, including:
- Eradicating deficits in local authority budgets for SEND provision – estimated to be £4.6bn by next March.
- Taking steps to restore a shortfall of £3.6bn in capital funding (the difference between the £4bn a year requested by the DfE between 2021 nd 2025 and the £3.1bn a year allocated by the Treasury). This after a recent National Audit Office report found that the maintenance backlog across the education estate will need £13.8bn to address.
- Providing an additional £650m “to enable all schools to cover cost pressures next year”.
- Providing an additional £200m “to maintain real-terms spending per student in colleges”.
Speaking this week after the Spring Statement, Julia Harnden, ASCL’s funding specialist, added: “Nothing in the Spring Statement changes the bleak financial situation being faced by schools and colleges. The reality is that many will have to make further cuts to their budgets and thus the educational provision they are able to provide.
“We look forward to the outcome of the Spending Review in June – which will determine departmental expenditure to 2028-29 but the 1.2% average real-terms growth set out in the Spring Statement looks very tight given the competing demands of different departments.
“It is ominous that the government says it intends to drive efficiencies across the public sector and we would once again point out that all possible 'efficiencies' were exhausted long ago in schools and colleges and that any action to further drive down costs is better known as 'cuts'.
“Increased capital spending is welcome, and it is vital that a fair proportion is allocated to education to allow schools and colleges to make the repairs and refurbishments they desperately need. This would only begin to address the £3.6bn shortfall in capital funding for education since 2021.”